CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Colorado State men’s basketball won their first NCAA tournament game in 11 years after beating Virginia on Tuesday night.
Now, CSU has a date with Texas in Charlotte, North Carolina.
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The Longhorns went 20-12 (9-9 Big 12) this season, including wins over Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU.
ESPN currently has Texas favored by 2.5 points, giving the Longhorns a slight edge but conceding that it is likely a coin flip game.
Guard play will be front and center on Thursday. The Longhorns are led by Max Abmas, the star guard from the 2021 Oral Roberts squad who went to the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed, while the Rams are of course led by Isaiah Stevens.
Abmas puts up a lot of points but doesn’t always do so very efficiently. He’s averaging 17 points per game but takes a little more than 13 shots per game, shooting 43% from the field this season.
While Abmas will definitely be the focal point for the Rams defense, the key will be to prevent the rest of Texas’ players from getting going.
The Longhorns play team-style ball with four players averaging double-digits. Like the Rams, Texas’ offense is hard to guard because they’re able to run so many different plays depending on what the defense gives them.
A big part of that offense is the three-level scoring of forward Dylan Disu.
Disu scores at an unbelievably efficient rate, posting nearly 16 points per game on 49% shooting and hits his 3-pointers at a 50% clip. Covering Disu likely will fall on the shoulders of Joel Scott.
The Rams can mitigate Disu’s effectiveness, especially outside, by taking his legs away. One way to do that is to beat up on him in the post and force him to guard down low. Scott is the perfect player to do that, and with the way he has been playing, the Rams will likely go to him early.
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On the defensive end, it definitely helps that Scott is an elite perimeter defender for his size. His ability to guard one through five allows the Rams to rotate and switch through screens with ease.
Nique Clifford so often compliments Scott on the defensive end and will need to do so again on Thursday. Clifford is the Rams’ secret weapon on the glass and allows the Rams’ forwards to be more disciplined in boxing out to prevent offensive boards. Clifford also has a ton of length and can easily switch onto Disu on the perimeter if Texas tries to get the pick-and-pop going with Abmas and Disu.
Texas is a pretty sound team that doesn’t have many areas to exploit. While sound, one of the areas that CSU might be able to exploit is Texas’ 3-point defense. The Longhorns allow their opponents to shoot 35% from beyond the arc, and if the Rams can get the 3-ball going, it would likely be lights out for Texas.
Josiah Strong is an area of concern for the Rams if they want to rain down 3-pointers. Strong has been a good shooter for a lot of his career, but this season is only averaging 21% from long range.
If Texas starts to double the post and the help man comes off of Strong, he absolutely needs to hit his perimeter shots. But on the other hand, if Strong heats up and finds his shot, that could be the driver in CSU’s hopes of going on a Cinderella run.
At the end of the day, the winner of the game will boil down to who can hit their open shots. Both offenses will see plenty and whoever gets more to fall will win.
If you’re CSU, you have to feel pretty good about No. 4’s ability to find the open man. Stevens always seems to make the right play and will be the best player on the floor. When a game is as close as 2.5 points, having the best player suiting up for you oftentimes leads to more celebrations after the game.
Reach Damon Cook at sports@collegian.com or on Twitter @dwcook2001.
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