Poudre School District faces an uncertain future, with a decline in enrollment, budget shortfalls and the possibility of layoffs and consolidation of schools.

PSD’s enrollment decline continues a multi-year trend, according to the Student October Count, a program from the Colorado Department of Education that measures enrollment data for schools in Colorado. PSD has 25,013 students enrolled for the 2025-26 school year, which is down from 25,526 students the year prior. Most of these 513 former PSD students are elementary-aged children, who make up 479 of the lost students.

The peak of enrollment at PSD in recent years was the 2019-20 academic year, during which the district enrolled 27,291 students — nearly 2,000 students more compared to current enrollment.

Although Fort Collins is seeing a steady increase in residents, many of the newcomers are older adults or adults without children. Fewer students are staying who are of school age or moving into the district to replace the students who graduate, move away or drop out.

The decline in enrollment is driven by a steady decline in birth rates and a rise in housing costs. Birth rates in Larimer County have been in a sharp decline since 2016, except for a small rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic. However, projections do not forecast a rebound in birth rates in the foreseeable future.

“For at least five years now, we’ve seen declining enrollment within PSD,” said John Cope, PSD executive director of communications. “That’s something that we’ve been monitoring and we’re aware of. There are many factors that are contributing to that, with declining birth rates being the primary driver. It’s not unique to PSD; it’s a statewide and nationwide issue.”

The district’s budget is also affected by enrollment decline. As enrollment drops, the budget allocated to the district decreases. Rising costs of living and cuts in state and federal funding for PSD are also factors in the district’s budget, but enrollment is the primary driver of the district’s revenue.

In the past, the district has softened the fiscal impact of enrollment by averaging, which allows districts to measure enrollment as multi-year averages instead of taking the most recent October Count data. The Colorado Department of Education is phasing out averaging, which will make future budget challenges more frequent.

Factoring in falling enrollment, rising living costs and cuts in state and federal education budgets, Cope said Poudre School District is facing a funding reduction of between $8 million and $17 million.

“We’re not necessarily planning for worst-case scenarios, but we’re planning conservatively,” Cope said. “We don’t want to assume the best-case scenario and then not have funding to support the plans that we put in place. $8 million to $17 million is a large range, but that’s because we don’t yet know what the state will do.”

In light of this, the district has plans to reduce its expenditures and its workforce. The PSD Board of Education voted Feb. 24 to authorize a reduction of its licensed teaching workforce to address the budget shortfall. The vote allows the district to lay off some of its staff, if necessary.

The increased budget shortfall would stretch district resources thin. The district is already in the process of reducing operating costs and reorganizing staff; however, it is considering consolidating schools if the budget shortfall proliferates.

Poudre School District is allowing the community to discuss the challenges and provide feedback on PSD’s actions. Throughout the month of April, PSD has scheduled six community feedback sessions at their schools.

“The purpose of these sessions is to start figuring out what is most necessary about our district that we need to protect and the opportunities that we see,” said Jessica Zamora, PSD Board of Education president. “We’re trying to make sure that the community feels part of the process and that it’s not being done to them.”

Some community members showed concern over how the district may choose to cut spending.

“I have noticed that there’s a lot of talk about how great Poudre School District is,” said Tom Griggs, a former PSD substitute teacher and PSD parent. “The reason it’s great is because of what’s going on in classrooms and in schools all over the district. I think before we do any cutting and trimming, we need to be very careful to protect what makes it so great. If it’s as great as we think it is, which there’s good reason to believe it is, we better be careful about how we cut. Otherwise, we might cut a critical artery.”

The Poudre School District community remains optimistic about its ability to withstand challenges ahead.

“The current school board is doing a very good job of trying to address the reaction to the previous initiative that created a lot of fuss about two-and-a-half-years ago,” Griggs said. “They’re doing the best they can under pressure to respond to a dynamic situation where we don’t know what the budget cuts are going to actually be yet, and to be fiscally responsible about it.”

Reach Robert Sides at news@collegian.com or on social media @RMCollegian.