The debate about blackjack’s status as a game of luck or skill has raged on for centuries. We know that a variation of blackjack has existed since the seventeenth century based on the writings of Miguel de Cervantes. He was a prolific writer and fan of the game even though most today remember him as the writer of Don Quixote.
Many gamblers have come to an agreement that casino games are all up to chance. It is undeniable that luck plays a significant role in roulette and craps after all. There is no doubt that luck has its place in blackjack as well. But the prolific card game is much more complex than new players and uninitiated fans may give it credit for.
The online success of the card game has once again sparked discussion about luck versus skill. Now that it is possible to play live blackjack at Casino Days in Canada plenty of players are interested in the mathematical approach to the game. Some may find that they have a lot to learn from one of the smartest card games in the world.
The Mathematical Approach
We can’t discuss a mathematical approach to blackjack without bringing up Edward O. Thorp. He authored one of the most famous examinations of the prolific card game with Beat the Dealer. The book examines how mathematical skills may be useful in winning a game of blackjack without fail. The skills and approaches he described soon came to be known as card counting. It is no wonder then that many players today consider Mr. Thorp the father of the concept. Thorp used his understanding of money management and mathematics to engineer one of the most popular strategies in gambling history.
But most people assume that card counting is a difficult practice as soon as they hear that mathematics is involved. The strategy certainly requires a baseline understanding of math and a little bit of extracurricular study. But one does not need to be a mathematician on the level of Mr. Thorp to implement the strategy. They merely need to understand how probability works in the game of blackjack.
Probability in Blackjack
Understanding blackjack and probability starts with the very basics of card games. The first step is knowing what a single blackjack deck looks like. It all starts with one simple deck of 52 cards. Jokers play no role in blackjack and the two extra cards are therefore removed. Of those left four are aces and sixteen are cards that have a value of ten or over. The remaining ones all come up to a value below nine. What conclusions can we draw from this analysis?
The first is that about one third of the deck has a value above a ten. That means that the chances of getting a card valued at ten are significantly lower. We need to pair that with the fact that only four of the cards are aces. The ten and ace is the most recognizable blackjack. But it is also the one most difficult to get. The chance to draw a face card and an ace are pretty slim after all. But just how slim is it?
Knowing that we need two specific cards (of which there are four and sixteen in the deck respectively) is the first step to discovering the probability of getting blackjack. Taking all possible combinations of the 52-card deck two at a time yields a pretty reasonable result. The probability of getting a two card blackjack is around 4.8%. It all makes sense when we stop to think that there are four aces in a standard blackjack deck.
Mathematics Put to the Test
Many of us grew up dreading the next math test in school. So it is only fair that years later we put math itself to the test. We have described the theoretical side of math in blackjack. But have these theories ever been put into practice? Our goal in this section of the article is to examine how professional and famous blackjack players have implemented strategies derived from mathematics to actually win a game of blackjack.
What is more famous of an example than that of the MIT blackjack team? College life for most of us is about fostering our future success. But for a group of students and alumni of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology college was a time to take down Las Vegas. The MIT Blackjack team terrorized casinos throughout the country. They used an intricately carved system of card counting and information gathering to “beat the dealer” as Edward O. Thorp suggested. The story of the team was immortalized by one of its members in a semi-fiction book titled Bringing Down the House.
Ken Uston is another name frequently brought up when discussing blackjack grandmasters. The author and blackjack pro gained immense notoriety in the middle of the past century. He built upon Edward O. Thorp’s strategies to formulate his own approach to team blackjack counting. Uston terrorized casinos in the United States for decades and was even blacklisted from several establishments. He used his expertise on the subject to publish several books on both the card game and even video games.
Further Exploration is Needed
The luck versus skill debate is one that will continue to permeate in popular culture. People like Thorp and Uston along with the MIT Blackjack Team have proven that strategy and skill are useful. But there are still plenty of casual players who get lucky during a match even without any prior planning. The fascinating thing about blackjack is that the game does not offer a simple answer. One must conclude that both strategy and luck are necessary to truly get the most out of it.
But even luck is not random in the casino. Savvy players who respect the strategic side of the game can tip the scales of chance in their favor. That is why we must encourage any new player to study the skill aspect of blackjack as much as they can. It is one way to ensure that Lady Luck may smile on them when the time is right.