For the first time of the millennia, the Scott Nies betting column has a positive record.
Last week, the Colorado State University Rams ousted their Border War foes and helped to hit the over, and the Green Bay Packers more than covered the five-point spread against the San Francisco 49ers.
The University of Colorado, Boulder, Buffaloes — it pains me to say this — proved to be significantly better than I thought. Scoring 48 points, the Buffs almost beat the 56.5-point total by themselves.
The parlay had mixed results this week, as it ultimately did not hit, but two of the three picks were correct.
So, going into the sixth week of the column, the overall record sits at 13 wins and 11 losses, with the parlay having a record of 1-1.
“Do one thing a day that scares you, so this Sunday we are going to take a three-team underdog parlay.”
Sports betting has provided me with added levels of entertainment but only because I bet within my means. If you feel you need help, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Colorado State University Rams vs. Boise State University Broncos
Spread: CSU +13.5 points, BSU -13.5 points
Moneyline: CSU +390, BSU -590
Over/Under: 62.5 points
CSU’s 34-24 win over the University of Wyoming carries a whole lot of momentum coming into the contest against the Boise State University Broncos this week.
A consistent theme for the Rams this year has been their struggling ability to defend the pass. In the Border War, CSU gave up 321 passing yards, and at first glance, this Boise State University team is prepped to take significant advantage of that weakness.
However, the Broncos have had a string of quarterback injuries, which left them in the hands of freshman Cade Fennegan for the majority of last week’s 34-point loss to Brigham Young University.
It is still uncertain if preferred starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier will be back from an unknown injury or if second-string quarterback Jack Sears will be back from an apparent concussion sustained last week, and the uncertainty surrounding Boise’s quarterback situation could help the Rams.
If the Rams’ defensive line can continue the consistent quarterback pressure they have exhibited over their first two games, it should help mitigate the Broncos’ star wide receiver, Khalil Shakir, from being his productive self. Shakir is going into this game with 23 receptions for 352 yards and four touchdowns on the season.
Verdict: CSU +13.5. A lot of this pick hinges on who starts at quarterback for the Broncos in this game. I’m hoping to see the Broncos’ third stringer under center, which would give the CSU secondary a little breathing room and the ability to keep the game close.
Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. University of Maryland, College Park, Terrapins
Spread: OSU -24.5, UMD +24.5
Moneyline: OSU -2000, UMD +900
Over/Under: 73.5 points
Taulia Tagovailoa, the brother of Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, has been dominating the stat sheet in his last two games. On the season, the University of Maryland, College Park, Terrapins’ quarterback has thrown for 770 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions.
Over the same three-game time period, the Ohio State University Buckeyes’ quarterback Justin Fields has been putting up even more outlandish numbers. Fields has thrown for 908 yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions.
On paper, it’s an absolute no-brainer to take Ohio State in this game. However, Maryland has recently made a name for itself for beating teams it should have no business beating. In the last two weeks, Maryland beat Penn State University as a 27.5-point underdog and beat the University of Minnesota as an 18-point underdog.
Verdict: UMD +24.5. It’s insane to think Maryland could beat Ohio State, so I just can’t rationalize taking them to win straight up, even though their last two games indicate that a huge upset is always in the cards. I think the safer bet here is to predict that Tagovailoa continues his impressive streak and keeps the Terrapins within range, but ultimately can’t get the win this week against a strong Buckeye side.
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Broncos +5.5, Raiders -5.5
Moneyline: Broncos +210, Raiders -245
Over/Under: 52 points
The Las Vegas Raiders’ over has gone 6-1-1 this year, and it has gone 4-1 in their away games. Their offense has been putting up an average of 27.3 points per game, but their poor defense may be the reason behind the over being a consistently winning bet. The Raiders’ defense has been giving up 28.6 points per game.
The Denver Broncos’ defense has not been doing anything miraculous either, as they are giving up 27.1 points a game.
Fortunately for us, I do not see any drastic defensive improvements coming in this week 10 game. However, between the rushing prowess of Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay and the rookie receiving competition that is bound to occur between Las Vegas’ Henry Ruggs III and Denver’s Jerry Jeudy, offenses are bound to shine in this game.
Drew Lock is playing really good football — in the fourth quarter, usually, when it’s way too late for the Broncos to make a comeback. In the final quarter of the game, Lock has thrown for 464 yards and five touchdowns this year. If he can stretch his late-game heroics over a full game, the Broncos’ offense should see a significantly higher rate of production.
Verdict: Over 52 points. Conference games always see offenses rise to the occasion, especially when a Raiders win could see them on an all-but-promised road to the playoffs. For the Broncos, it’s a chance to finally gain some consistent offensive production, something they have been missing all year.
NFL Sunday Parlay
Do one thing a day that scares you, so this Sunday, we are going to take a three-team underdog parlay.
Buffalo Bills ML at +110 odds, Seattle Seahawks ML at +106 odds, New York Giants ML at +150 odds.
These three picks combine for odds of +981, which means if you bet $5, you will win $54.08. Last week, the parlay was conservative and it lost, which means this week’s parlay needs to edge a little more on the crazy side in order for it to hit.
Scott Nies can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or on Twitter @scott_nies98.